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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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November 7, 2024

Trump, Back Into the Fire

Asked by The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board last month whether he would deploy the US military to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, if faced with such a crisis, Donald Trump responded: “I wouldn’t have to, because [Chinese leader Xi Jinping] respects me, and he knows I’m f— crazy.”
 
Heading back to the White House, Trump and his signature erratic style will confront a world newly marked by geopolitical chaos, as Reuters’ Matt Spetalnick notes. Barring elusive peace deals, two wars in the Middle East and another in Ukraine will greet Trump after his inauguration. Tensions with China loom, as always. Spetalnick writes: “America’s friends and foes alike remain wary as they await Trump’s return to office in January, wondering whether his second term will be filled with the kind of turbulence and unpredictability that characterized his first four years.”
 
Unpredictability is part of the point, Alec Russell writes in a Financial Times feature. Some view it as a central element of Trump’s approach to foreign policy. “Yet on some issues his aides say he is crystal clear,” Russell writes. “They insist that he will be ready to act with vertiginous speed to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. All the while, he plans to threaten ever-higher tariffs to push America’s allies to spend more on defence and to equalise their trading relationship with the US—while also maintaining pressure on China. The audacious ‘America first’ global agenda envisaged by Trump’s allies, advisers and former—and would-be future—aides, is one in which friends and foes alike will be judged by the same simple metric: their bilateral trading surplus with the US.”

What a Second Trump Term Could Look Like

For the many people who dislike Trump, his win requires a bitter readjustment. The Atlantic’s David Frum writes: “Above all, we must learn to live in an America where an overwhelming number of our fellow citizens have chosen a president who holds the most fundamental values and traditions of our democracy, our Constitution, even our military in contempt.”
 
Many Trump critics fear his second administration will be much wilder and less constrained than his first. As Peter D. Feaver wrote in a Foreign Affairs essay, Trump will no longer be surrounded by establishment aides seeking to blunt his impulses. The New Yorker’s Susan Glasser warns of big changes: “Already, one of Trump’s transition chairs, the billionaire Howard Lutnick, has said publicly that jobs in a new Administration will go only to those who pledge loyalty to Trump himself. Having beaten off impeachment twice, this second-term Trump will have little to fear from Congress reining him in, either, especially now that Republicans have managed to retake control of the Senate. And the Supreme Court, with its far-right majority solidified thanks to three Trump-appointed Justices, has recently granted the Presidency near-total immunity in a case brought by Trump seeking to quash the post-January 6th cases against him.”
 
Trump has indicated a desire to hound his political opponents, and warnings of a Trumpian Judgment Day are chilling. The New York Times editorial board warned explicitly to take Trump at his word. Set against that alarm is the impression, or hope, that Trump might not be serious. In a Foreign Affairs interview, Stanford political historian Stephen Kotkin remarks: “[Y]es, it’s worrisome to hear rhetoric that is expressly antidemocratic, but some of that rhetoric is about stirring the pot, driving the other side into a frenzy, and whipping up your side, especially in this social media age.”
 
Either way, Trump has won a mandate. Unbelieving critics could disregard his 2016 election as a fluke, but a second election and a majority in the popular vote reveal the breath of his support undeniably. Trump’s victory “marks a new era for the US and the world, reflecting a sharp rightward lurch in the American electorate, which has not only embraced Trump’s brand of demagoguery, but also his ‘America First’ nationalist agenda,” James Politi and Stefania Palma write in the Financial Times. “Trump will now feel vindicated to press ahead with plans that he has laid out throughout the campaign: high tariffs on a vast swath of imports, more confrontational relationships with traditional US allies and a massive crackdown on illegal immigration.”

What Just Happened?

It’s worth marveling at the scale of Trump’s comeback. The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan describe its arc: “He overcame seemingly fatal political vulnerabilities—four criminal indictments, three expensive lawsuits, conviction on 34 felony counts, endless reckless tangents in his speeches—and transformed at least some of them into distinct advantages. How he won in 2024 came down to one essential bet: that his grievances could meld with those of the MAGA movement, and then with the Republican Party, and then with more than half the country. His mug shot became a best-selling shirt. His criminal conviction inspired $100 million in donations in one day. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destiny. ... Voters unhappy with the nation’s direction turned him into a vessel for their rage.”

 
Much has been (and will be) said about the demographic and geographic shifts seen in this election—and about the broader question of whether Americans have moved the right, politically, en masse. Among the major storylines are Latino men voting for Trump and sour views on the economy. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell tells NPR’s Mary Louise Kelly: “I do focus groups all the time, and I always start them by asking people, ‘How do you think things are going in the country?’ And for years now, people have been saying they do not think things are going good. Inflation has been killing them. You know, they're frustrated with immigration. … They know exactly how much eggs cost. They’re very sensitive to the price of gas. In the inflationary environment that we had post-COVID, this has felled incumbents across the globe.”

Dissecting Harris’ Loss

On the question of what went wrong for Kamala Harris, a long and painful exegesis has begun for Democrats. The BBC’s Courtney Subramanian notes President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, Harris’ struggle to build on his coalition, and a tendency to present the election as a referendum on Trump. Asking Biden aides where they think Harris erred, The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer hears gripes that she abandoned anti-big-business populism and failed to counter Trump’s culture-war ads about gender transitions for prisoners and detained migrants.
 
At The New Statesman, Sohrab Ahmari argues: “Harris might have done better had she enthusiastically articulated the populist elements of her boss’s vision: the industrial policies, the rural development, the tariffs, the anti-trust crusade. … Her surrogates bashed tariffs as a ‘tax on consumers’, seemingly unaware that Team Biden had retained and expanded Trump’s [tariffs] on Chinese goods. … It was hard to discern a story beyond ‘defend democracy’ and protecting women’s right to an abortion. … In place of a cohesive narrative, Harris offered a barrage of lame micro-policies: small-business loans, homebuyer grants, handouts to the scammy crypto industry, encouraging black marijuana entrepreneurs, scrapping tax on restaurant tips (a gimmick lifted from Trump’s agenda) and so on. What happened to the sorts of things that used to make left parties attractive to ordinary people: Medicare for all? Student- and medical-loan forgiveness? Peace in the Middle East?”