Hello from Brooklyn, where I'm filing this special Sunday edition from an NYC marathon party. On this election eve eve, there's so much to share, and I can't wait until Monday. So let's get to it... |
"News outlets are preparing an anxious nation for the likelihood that election night will stretch into an election week," CNN's Hadas Gold writes in this brand new story about media planning and race calling.
Transparency was a theme of Gold's interviews with news executives. "With the way that misinformation has really, really flourished, and the speed at which misinformation moves, you're going to see us do a lot more to pull back the curtain," AP exec editor Julie Pace said.
For example, The AP is "going to be really transparent about why we may not be able to call a race," Pace said. "We know that sometimes those are the moments where actually, misinformation can flourish the most."
CNN and other major networks also have plans in place for explaining the ins and outs of race calls. Many journalists (just like many elected officials and ordinary voters) expect that Donald Trump will declare victory on election night. If so, he'll be "throwing the public's understanding of the race into chaos," Gold writes, and putting himself into direct conflict with data-driven journalists and election workers.
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Winning the messaging war |
Rewatching the new Trump biopic "The Apprentice" last night, I was reminded that Trump's mentor Roy Cohn taught him decades ago to always be winning, or at least claim to be winning. Cohn says it this way in the film: "No matter what happens, you claim victory and never admit defeat."
This weekend, Trump is claiming that the race is "not very close" and talking about leading in New Jersey, implying he is going to win in a landslide. He is priming his supporters "to falsely believe the election is not legitimate if he loses," as CNN's Jeremy Herb reports here.
So it's important that – as the AP's David Bauder puts it – "news organizations are trying to explain things." But in this moment, I'm also keenly aware that the news media's power is limited, and many people are inclined to trust Trump, no matter how transparent and thoughtful the coverage...
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Check out Gold's full story to understand how projections are made. She talked with CNN political director David Chalian about all the variables – and the reasons why it may take so long this year.
>> 🔌 To make a projection "our decision desk needs to get to 99.9% certainty that a second place candidate does not have a mathematical possibility of overtaking the first place candidate," Chalian told CNN's Audie Cornish on the latest episode of "The Assignment."
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Uncertainty is still the story |
"The one thing we do know, based on all the available data and evidence, is how much we don't know," Semafor's Dave Weigel wrote on Friday.
On Saturday, The Des Moines Register and Mediacom's shock poll showing Trump no longer ahead in Iowa quickened Democrats' hearts. "Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers," J. Ann Selzer assessed. Sunday morning's NYT/Siena polls told a somewhat different story. The differing data sets are giving us "a 'choose your own adventure' ending to an unprecedented election," the Cook Political Report's Amy Walter commented.
>> CNN's Dana Bash led today's "SOTU" noting that "the candidates are still locked in an extremely tight race amid signs that late-deciding persuadable voters are breaking towards Harris..."
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Special coverage across cable |
The cable news networks are in special pre-election mode. Fox News has all of its weekday hosts working today. Starting at 5 p.m. ET, CNN will feature "Countdown to Election Day" editions of Wolf Blitzer, Erin Burnett, Anderson Cooper, Kaitlan Collins, Abby Phillip and Laura Coates' weekday programs. MSNBC will have an Sunday night special helmed by Rachel Maddow at 7 p.m. and a live edition of "How to Win 2024" hosted by Jen Psaki at 9 p.m...
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Trump on Fox, Harris on "SNL" |
Trump began his Saturday with a 30-minute phone call to "Fox & Friends." Harris ended her Saturday with a three-minute cameo on "SNL." Both were home team visits – but the Harris visit was far higher-rated and much more culturally influential. Republicans are accusing NBC of evading the FCC's "equal time rule" by having Harris on...
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Behind the scenes with Kaitlan Collins |
CNN's Kaitlan Collins (who was played by Chloe Fineman on last night's episode) was in the studio audience last night (and got to meet Fineman afterward). "It was clear from entering 30 Rock that guests were in for a surprise — there were magnetometers and Secret Service," Collins told me this morning. "The crowd went absolutely wild when she appeared on set. As Harris exited the set following her appearance, she saw me and mouthed, 'Are you ready for Tuesday?'"
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Harris' final pass to football fans |
The Harris campaign's final two-minute TV ad, titled "Brighter Future," is full of patriotic imagery and positive energy. It doesn't mention Trump at all. It is airing on CBS and Fox's NFL games this afternoon, "including during the Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers game — a matchup of swing-state teams that virtually all of the country will get on their televisions" later today, Politico's Myah Ward reports.
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One week, one billion in ads |
Eye-watering #'s via NBC's Ben Kasimar: "With Election Day around the corner, there's been just shy of $1 billion spent on political ads up and down the ballot in the last week, data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact shows." And "there's still more than $300 million in future advertising time booked between Sunday and Tuesday..."
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Coverage notes and quotes |
>> Speaking of TV ads, Adam Nagourney says the "surprise hit of the campaign TV ad season" are the spots that "tell voters it’s OK to break from their party." (NYT)
>> Aidan Ryan writes about "how Black-led newsrooms are bringing nuance, perspective to Kamala Harris coverage." (Boston Globe)
>> Ben Jacobs checks in with his one-time boss, CNN analyst turned politico John Avlon, who is trying to flip a House seat on Long Island. "Now that Avlon has made the transition out of journalism, he’s left with criticisms of how the media covers politics." (Slate)
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Seconding this sentiment... |
From CBS correspondent Ed O'Keefe: It's the "final weekend before America’s big decision. Thinking especially today of the colleagues out on the road, up early, staying up late, catching planes, renting cars, and talking to everyday people to get answers. It's a privilege to be a journalist in a free society, and weekends like this are especially why. Safe travels everyone."
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Four great reads about the divide |
>> Politico's Michael Kruse says he's never worked on a story like this before. It's about two brothers, and about all of us: "What the Johnson brothers of Centralia, Illinois, tell us about the causes of our nation’s political divide." The central questions: "Can they talk again? Can we?" (Politico)
>> Claire Malone traveled to Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania, and found that the election is a "fight over truth." The Trump era "has twisted and tugged at the county’s social fabric, so much so that the answers to basic questions about what is true and who can be trusted no longer appear certain." (New Yorker)
>> Belief in media malpractice is "central to MAGA culture," David French observes. Sometimes, when neighbors in Tennessee say he's "fake news," he tries to probe "what specifically made them angry. Rarely do I get a precise answer. There is simply a sense that we can’t be trusted, that we’re on the other side." (NYT)
>> "The online right has grown addicted to MAGA Fanfic," especially on X, Sam Stein reports. Pro-Trump lies portrayed as "scoops" or insider info are fooling people who "don't trust the actual media to begin with," and thus "are willing to believe the alternative sources being promoted to them on the platform," even one named "Bad Hombre." (The Bulwark)
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The celeb endorsements for Harris continue to pour in – and some are genuinely newsworthy – both for what they say and how they say it. Cardi B said on Friday that she wasn't going to vote at all until Harris entered the race. After her appearance with the VP, Elon Musk called her a "puppet," and her response calling him a "puppet" garnered tens of millions of views on X.
Also on Friday, Chloë Grace Moretz's endorsement of Harris doubled as a coming-out post. "I believe in the need for legal protections that protects the LGBTQ+ community as a gay woman," she wrote on Instagram. And on Saturday, Olivia Rodrigo used Instagram to more explicitly endorse Harris than she had before, in the form of a video with Hadley Duvall, a reproductive rights advocate. At the risk of stating the obvious, this stuff matters because these celebs have massive social media followings. Rodrigo? More than 38 million Instagram followers. Moretz? More than 24 million.
>> Harrison Ford's endorsement on Saturday garnered a lot of attention on Saturday for this line: "Harris will protect your right to disagree with her."
>> Another obvious statement: Democrats always have this celeb endorsement advantage, and it can be a "double-edged sword," as The Guardian notes. I'm most interested in how celebs are making their own Harris-aligned content, as opposed to just speaking/performing at rallies...
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>> Alex Sherman and Stephanie Ruhle's Friday morning scoop: Greek media company the Antenna Group is in talks to buy TIME "from Salesforce co-founder Marc Benioff, according to people familiar with the matter." The talks are "still early..." (CNBC)
>> Comcast "is working with investment bank Morgan Stanley to evaluate options for its cable networks," Michelle F. Davis and Kelcee Griffis reported Friday, citing sources. (Bloomberg)
>> Katie Robertson's Sunday Business deep dive: "Can Joanna Coles and Ben Sherwood revive the once-buzzy news site and reclaim their perches atop the New York media world? Their own staff isn't sure." (NYT)
>> "Greatest hits albums, once a must purchase, have lost their mojo," Ashley Carman observes: "In the streaming era, compilation albums have shrunk to a novelty item for superfans..." (Bloomberg)
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