View this email in your browser 

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Sign up here.

April 18, 2024

Is Ukraine on Its Way to Losing?

The fate of Ukraine may rest—at least in part—on current activity in the US Capitol, where House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) hopes to advance a plan to deliver more US military aid to Kyiv. That aid has long been stalled by the Trumpist right wing of the House GOP conference. As The Wall Street Journal’s Natalie Andrews, Katy Stech Ferek and Isabel Coles detail, Johnson has defied GOP critics in order to, as he put it, “do the right thing.” The Economist writes that he might have to choose between helping Ukraine and keeping his job as speaker.

Of more direct consequence is what happens in Ukraine’s east, along its front with Russia’s invading army. Last year, a Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to make significant gains. Now, Ukraine finds itself out-gunned, as US aid is held up and as Europe hasn’t delivered the promised load of artillery shells. The Ukrainian military is building and fortifying defenses, in anticipation of a Russian offensive this year. Some anecdotal reports suggest national morale has plummeted. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and CIA Director William Burns both warned this week that Ukraine faces a bleak battlefield outlook.

At Foreign Policy, Oz Katerji paints a dire picture: “‘Because of the lack of shells, we have to pay with lives,’ [Ukrainian brigade commander Vladislav] said, making it clear that the price paid for Western inaction on artillery is being paid for in Ukrainian blood. I asked what the ratio of fire between them and the Russians currently was, and Vladislav delivered another grim assessment. ‘On the good days, between 10- and 20-to-1’ he said, ‘and on the bad days, it almost feels like they have an unlimited supply.’” At Politico Magazine, Jamie Dettmer suggests Ukraine is on its way to losing the war: “It’s not just that Ukraine’s forces are running out of ammunition. Western delays over sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the fighting spirit required to win. Morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield. In cities hundreds of miles away from the front, the crowds of young men who lined up to join the army in the war’s early months have disappeared. Nowadays, eligible would-be recruits dodge the draft and spend their afternoons in nightclubs instead. Many have left the country altogether.”

That sentiment is not shared by everyone. At The Washington Post, columnist David Ignatius finds steely resolve in a conversation with Ukrainian military-intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who urges the US Congress to deliver more help. “Ukraine survives,” Ignatius writes, “in part on mythic, galvanizing personalities such as Budanov and President Volodymyr Zelensky.”

Israel and Iran Climb

the Ladder of Escalation

When a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus killed Iranian military commanders on April 1, Israel seemed to miscalculate the geopolitical impact of that strike and the scale of Iran’s potential retaliation, The New York Times’ Ronen Bergman, Farnaz Fassihi, Eric Schmitt, Adam Entous and Richard Pérez-Peña write. On Saturday night, that retaliation arrived in the form of hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones, launched directly at Israel.

Now, it seems the simmering conflict between the two countries could escalate further. The White House reportedly urged Israel to “take the win” and move on, so to speak; after all, Israel successfully intercepted nearly all of Iran’s projectiles. But The Jerusalem Post’s Yonah Jeremy Bob indicates Israel’s military has decided on the type, but not the timing, of a response. On a visit to Jerusalem, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Israel is “making a decision to act.”

As for the White House’s advice, Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead argues Israel would endanger itself by heeding Washington’s wishes and standing down in the face of Iran’s barrage. As Frida Ghitis writes for CNN Opinion, Israel may have intercepted most of Iran’s projectiles, but one can imagine the consequences if it hadn’t—or if those missiles had borne nuclear warheads. Still, Ghitis highlights an opening for diplomacy, rather than military action, calling the current moment “another opportunity for Israel, a chance to rebuild some of the [international] ties that have become frayed during the devastating war with Hamas.”

Iran, the World, and a

Looming Succession

Iran finds itself embroiled in a complicated dance of escalation with Israel. At the same time, it must think about a looming leadership change, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 84 years old. On Sunday’s GPS, Fareed heard from New York Times correspondent David Sanger about shifting global alignments, as Russia and China have grown closer to Iran and more antagonistic to the West in recent years, and from noted Iran expert Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University about how Iran might manage a leadership transition amid high regional tensions.

It’s Not Over in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s civil war in its Tigray region was catastrophic, and it briefly captured the world’s attention with its scale and intensity of violence. Beginning in 2020, a war unfolded between the central government in Addis Ababa and an opposing political faction in the northern Tigray region. A former Nigerian president serving as an African Union envoy estimated the total dead at 600,000, which would make Ethiopia’s civil war “one of the world’s deadliest conflicts of recent times,” the Financial Times reported early last year.

The war formally ended in 2020, but in a Foreign Affairs essay, Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe write that the crisis isn’t over, as Ethiopian states south of Tigray are now plagued by conflict. “There is no easy solution to Ethiopia’s multifaceted crisis,” they write. “But the world urgently needs to engage with it.”

China Lets AI Developers

Do Their Thing

China was quick to draft and publish regulations governing artificial intelligence, but Zeyi Yang writes for the MIT Technology Review that Beijing is largely taking a hands-off approach to the emerging technology. That stands in stark contrast to harsh Chinese government regulation of other tech sectors, like e-commerce.

Yang writes: “[T]here are patterns in how China approaches regulating tech, argues Angela Huyue Zhang, a law professor at Hong Kong University and author of the new book High Wire: How China Regulates Big Tech and Governs Its Economy. The way Chinese policies change almost always follow a three-phase progression: a lax approach where companies are given relative flexibility to expand and compete, sudden harsh crackdowns that slash profits, and eventually a new loosening of restrictions. … The government’s deeply embedded interest in China’s AI industry means that the industry will stay in that initial phase of lax regulation for a while, Zhang says. And she argues that AI regulations in China today are looser than those in the US and Europe. … Zhang believes that these regulations are strict only when it comes to freedom of speech and content control, areas in which the Chinese government has been increasingly stringent.”