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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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December 2, 2022

Fareed: Autocracies Are Stumbling

For all the recent hand-wringing about the health of democracies, from the US to Italy to Brazil, Fareed notes in his latest Washington Post column that “we are seeing signs of deep and structural weaknesses in some of the world’s most powerful autocracies.” China faces a rare wave of protests against Covid-19 restrictions, Fareed points out. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s war has shown the danger of his isolated authority. In Iran, protesters are railing against the fundamentalist clerical regime.
 
“Autocracies can seem impressive for a while because they can be steady, consistent and ruthless in reaching goals,” Fareed writes. “But they face a fundamental challenge: They struggle to accommodate themselves to a changing society. … Democracy is fragile in its own way, but this is a good moment to consider its strengths. … It has stood the test of time for two and a half centuries. Does anyone think that the Russian or Chinese or Iranian systems will endure as long?”

Chinese Cities Loosen, but a Covid Conundrum Looms

Some Chinese cities have eased select Covid-19 restrictions, following a national wave of protests against lockdowns. But if China abandons its strict pandemic approach more broadly, will the virus run rampant?  
 
Dropping “zero Covid” without planning and preparation could risk “a wave of deaths,” Smriti Mallapaty writes for Nature. China’s elderly-vaccination rate is low, as is its supply of intensive-care hospital beds, Mallapaty writes. (China has shunned foreign-made mRNA-based vaccines, relying instead on domestically produced inoculations. At the same time, it has suffered relatively few infections that could produce natural immunity. That has led to concerns about China’s population-level vulnerability to Covid-19.) At The Conversation, James Chin voices particular concern about elderly residents and health services in rural areas.

Women vs. Theocracy

As Iran is convulsed by protests against its clerical regime, The Intercept’s “Intercepted” podcast hears from journalist and author Neda Toloui-Semnani and activist Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini about the palpability of daily repression Iranian women face, their history of resistance, the novelty of men standing with them this time, and the open question of how much violence the regime will use against demonstrators. In an essay for the German magazine Blätter, translated and published in English by Eurozine, Golineh Atai questions whether reform is possible for Iran’s regime.

Ukraine’s Battlefield Lessons

What has Ukraine’s fight for survival revealed about modern warfare?
 
As the Global Briefing has noted before, analysts have marveled at Ukrainian forces’ successful use of lighter, cheaper weapons—and at the ineffectiveness of Russia’s old-school army, heavy on tanks and artillery. Whether “the tank is dead” has been debated. Verdicts on the values of air supremacy, air denial and cyber have been sought.
 
With more time and research, insights are beginning to coalesce, The Economist writes, noting the publication this week of a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British defense think tank. Sorting through lessons gleaned by the RUSI authors, The Economist writes that targeting and evasion are important in today’s warfare; “Javelin and NLAW anti-tank missiles supplied by America and Britain did not save the day” for Ukraine; artillery (and particularly the supply of ammunition) has been “pivotal”; drones are more important for reconnaissance than for strikes; “armies need more drones than they think”; and electronic warfare (e.g., radio and radar jamming) is the best defense against them.
 
Seeking lessons in a different fighting domain, The Economist writes that Russia’s feared cyber capabilities have not appeared to play a major role in this war, possibly because of Ukraine’s cyber defenses and because effective cyber campaigns require time and preparation.

The Reality of ‘Fake Fans’

This World Cup has been rife with political controversy—notably over human rights in host country Qatar—but fandom itself has endured a kerfuffle. After a group of South Asian supporters of England were accused from afar of being “fake fans,” Financial Times sports editor Josh Noble reflects on a changing relationship between fans and the sport worldwide.
 
“If football is a matter of identity—personal or national—how can someone cheer for Argentina at 1pm, then don the yellow of rivals Brazil hours later?” Noble asks, hypothetically. “But like it or not, this is the modern game. This World Cup has showcased a vision of football where national teams are more like brands that anyone can consume, and where preference can be based on mood or marketing. When Fifa talks about a ‘World Cup for everyone’, this is what it means in practice.”